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AdvBassStats: Buggs Island Open report

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The 2023 Bassmaster Opens field was pulled out of their southern comfort zone for a trip to the Virginia/North Carolina border and Buggs Island Lake (a.k.a. John H. Kerr Reservoir). The unfamiliar waters, the transitional postspawn stage, and wildly changing water conditions made it a tough test for much of the field and appeared to give locals a bit of an advantage.
 
North Carolina angler Powell Kemp jumped out to a big lead on Day 1 with 19 pounds, 8 ounces and followed with a strong Day 2 at 16-12.
Kemp’s lead entering the final day had extended to more than 7 pounds over second place. The rest of the field was very tightly packed, with second through 10th separated by less than 2 pounds. The chase group included two Elite Series anglers — Joey Cifuentes and David Williams — and two 2022 Opens Champs — Casey Smith and JT Thompkins. Kemp’s job on the final day would be to keep within 7 pounds of the best bag this group could catch.
North Carolina angler and Elite Series pro David Williams would make the strongest charge, going over 17 pounds on both Days 2 and 3 and trying to keep Kemp from a cakewalk. Kemp answered with 12-9 on Day 3, which was his smallest bag of the event, but still gave him 3 pounds of buffer and the clear victory. Powell Kemp is the next angler to claim a spot in the 2024 Bassmaster Classic field.
Here’s where we see a big change from the first two events. Only four of the Top 10 finishers at Buggs Island were full-season Opens EQ anglers, while six were Division anglers. That’s a big reversal from the first two events. Four of those six division anglers were “locals,” hailing from North Carolina or Virginia – Kemp, Williams, Ryan Broughman and Shayne Berlo. The other two were “ringers” – Cifuentes and Smith.
The Buggs Island results also created havoc in the Opens EQ AOY standings. John Garrett used an 18th-place finish to jump from third to first in EQ AOY. He also created the biggest points gap between any two adjacent rankings in the entire field. There are more points separating Garrett from no. 2 Matt Henry, than points separating Henry from no. 9 JT Thompkins.
Looking more closely at three-event finishes, we see that seven of the EQ top 10 scored their “worst” finish of the year at Buggs. Only JT Thompkins among the EQ top 10 can count Buggs as his best finish. Elite Series angler Kenta Kimura used a top 20 finish to move up to third place in AOY. If he holds on to a top nine EQ spot, which is pretty likely, and holds onto his Elite series roster spot (I think that’s guaranteed), it will open up a spot for the 10th-place angler to receive an Elite Series invitation.

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