Fantasy Fishing: The mystery lies in Bucket E

Written by

Coy Greathouse

Goodbye triple-digit temperatures. Goodbye shallow backwaters. Goodbye 9-pound largemouth.

Hello cool mornings, deep and clean water and big brown smallmouth bass.

There is a stark change that happens every year as we move up north. The guys who may be in the top of the Progressive Bassmaster Angler of the Year standings but may specialize in catching largemouth bass — those guys better bring their A-game. There is a group of anglers who have been champing at the bit for the last several months for this very opportunity.

And on top of all of that angst to get up north, the Elites have had a relatively long break since the last event. I’m fully anticipating you will see some major fireworks here at St. Clair.

Don’t expect to see more than a handful of green fish throughout the tournament. There may be an angler or two who think they can target them, but smallies have more than dominated the show the last several times the Bassmaster Elite Series came here. With smallmouth bass come some pretty standard techniques that you’re likely to see a lot of for the remainder of the year.

Drop shots, Carolina rigs, tube jigs, with the occasional crankbait, spybait or big jig will be the mainstays and should be the primary weapons used. That in mind, a handful of anglers really jump off the screen, and from the percentages already posted, it would appear that I am not alone.

I’ll be riding these ponies, or at least heavily considering the same small group of anglers in every event moving forward.

I’m in the top 10% in points right now, but after an absolutely abysmal Sabine river event, I find myself second to Rich “Hellabass” Lindgren … and the last thing I want to do is have to hear it from that guy if he gains any more of a lead.

Let’s get into some picks.

BUCKET A: PALANIUK

I don’t necessarily see a need to be sneaky here. The likelihood that the following anglers will be outside the top 20 is very slim. We’re starting with a guy who will definitely be fighting for a spot on Championship Sunday, Brandon Palaniuk. He is the highest owned angler in the bucket behind Jay Przekurat. Palaniuk had a rough event here in 2020, and while that tournament was also in August, it came down to a 2-pound difference between making the Day 3 cut and going home early. He has been fishing out of his mind with three finishes in the last four events being fifth place or better. If I know anything about BMP, it’s that when he gets hungry for a win, he is insatiable until he gets it. Those two second-place finishes likely have him reeling for a win.

Don’t forget about: Steve Kennedy

Steve Kennedy is quietly having a great year. He has decent finishes to his name here with a 20th back in 2020. He has never missed a Day 3 cut. If you want to pick a guy who is certainly undervalued to try to make up ground, he is a fantastic option.

BUCKET B: CHRIS JOHNSTON

I know you’re all surprised to see a Johnston on my team. Chris Johnston finished in sixth back in 2020, but it was such a tight race that he was only edged out by less than 2 pounds. Any time there are smallmouth bass spawning, he will certainly have an edge.

Don’t forget about: Bob Downey

Ole Bob Downey had a 20-pound average over three days last time. He had a great Northern Swing in 2022 also. Seems like this Minnesota angler is finding his groove on these giant smallmouth fisheries, and the upside to picking him could be strong if Chris Johnston’s boat and truck break down and someone snaps all his rods in two and steals his flogger.

BUCKET C: CORY JOHNSTON

Slightly edging out his brother, Cory Johnston finished a mere 8 ounces behind Bill Weidler in 2020, landing in second place. Just like Chris, his amount of know-how when it comes to smallmouth could fill the Empire State Building. They will have more areas than most to milk, so he will not have to worry as much about burning down a spot. That should give him enough to make it to Saturday if not all the way to Sunday.

Don’t forget about: Bernie Schultz

Every time we go north, Bernie Schultz is underrated. The wily Florida veteran’s relationship with smallmouth bass is unusual at best but seems to be pretty consistent. At this specific fishery, he has never missed the Day 3 cut, finishing around the high 20s each time.

BUCKET D: ITO

Smallmouth Disneyland. Need I say more? Taku Ito is now a household name when it comes to big brown fish. His win came two years ago fishing for smallmouth on St. Lawrence. He also snagged the last spot on Championship Sunday here in 2020, finishing in 10th. He’ll be a fun one to watch.

Don’t forget about: Paul Mueller

Paul Mueller should almost always be considered at every event. The problem is, he could get first place or dead last no matter where he is or how likely he is to do well. His history proves this theory. In three attempts here, he has a 10th, a 12th and a 107th. He’s a master with forward-facing sonar and has all the talent needed to do well, but which Paul will show up? If you’re willing to risk it, he could just win the whole thing.

BUCKET E: MULLINS

It all comes down to this — Bucket E. My guess is that given the high ownership percentages, this should be a high scoring event. But what will make the difference will be avoiding a bomb here. I would argue that none of these anglers deserve to be in this bucket, but at the end of the day, someone has to be last. David Mullins is likely to be a guy to make a charge in the Northern Swing. He can do what he is comfortable with, and it may be just the ticket. In 2020, he finished 11th here. His prior two attempts were pretty rough, but of the guys in this bucket, he definitely has the tools in his arsenal to put on a show.

Don’t forget about: Marc Frazier

With this bucket, you tend to have to lean on factors other than history. Marc Frazier has been a part of the Elite Series since 2021 and has had hit-or-miss results up north. Some of his good events have been offshore with light line. On Lake Oahe, another smallmouth event, he finished in fourth place. This will be his first professional tournament on this fishery, so he may just surprise us all.