Elite Analysis St. Clair – Day 1

We have over three decades of Bassmaster experience on Lake St. Clair and the only constant is that the weights keep on going up.

When the tour first visited the big urban bowl in late August of 1994, Michigander Kim Stricker won with 61 pounds 15 ounces. That’s an average of just about 15 and a half pounds a day.

Today, on the first day of the 2025 Yokahama Tire Bassmaster Elite at Lake St. Clair, 15-8 slides you into a cool 96th place out of 101. The lake is better, the technology is better, and top to bottom the anglers are better. I’m supposed to be surprised, but I’m not. 

Beyond that, the good news is that in the two months since our last Elite Series event, most of the field seems to have forgotten the word “grind.” It slipped out a few times today, but overall, the G-word seems to have been lost somewhere between Oklahoma and Michigan.

Here’s what I saw, thought, heard and speculated on a rough water day when the Elite field did what the Elites do – smash their lights out:

Speaking of 1994 – While Stricker’s win took place before some members of today’s field were born (it predated leader Trey McKinney’s birth by over a decade), some of today’s Elites were active then. Bernie Schultz finished 5th, Mark Menendez finished 36th and Randy Howell finished 76th. The recently-retired Rick Clunn was 8th and fellow AOY Clark Wendlandt was 54th.

More About ’94 – The runner-up to Stricker was a young Kevin VanDam, who was still older than McKinney is now, but not yet 27. It was the best of VanDam’s Michigan finishes. Indeed, despite multiple wins in several states, including Texas, Alabama and New York, he never won in the Upper Midwest at BASS. He finished 6th in a Tour event at St. Clair in 2001, but his Elite Series results there were subpar for the goat – 31st, 63rd and 72nd.

Brandon Lester (48th, 19-13) – “These fish are getting smarter and smarter every time we come here.”

McKinney Keeps Rising – This is Trey McKinney’s fourth Bassmaster professional event on a northern smallmouth lake and he keeps on getting better. He was 88th in the 2023 Open on the St. Lawrence, moved up 46 spots to 42nd at last year’s Elite on Champlain. Then he closed out the season with a 3rd in his return to the St. Lawrence. That doesn’t leave much room to go up, but somehow he’s on pace to do it. He leads after Day One with 24-11

Tyler Williams (56th, 19-6) – “I ran to Canada and it took me an hour and a half to get there when I thought it would take me 30 minutes.” He caught nothing there, made the ride back and amassed what would be an exceptional catch anywhere else, but is below the cut line at St. Clair.

Cut Weight Math – Logan Parks holds down the 50th place spot with 19-12. Double that and it would take 39-08 to make the cut to Saturday. Add a pound and it would take 40-8. The last time the Elites were here, in 2023, the Day One weights at the top and the 50-mark were remarkably similar: Shane LeHew led with 24-3, 10th place was 22-03 and 50th place was 19-02. On Day Two, 10th was 44-02, just a hair under twice what it had been on Day One. Fiftieth was 38-07, just a hair over twice what it had been on Day One. I feel like the traditional 2X+1 math is gradually giving way on a consistent basis to just doubling. While we can’t be sure why that is, my theory is that it earlier Elite generations, anglers were still learning substantially as Day One went on, and therefore improved on Day Two. Now, with the technology, the homework and the overall skill level, there’s simply not as much room for improvement – or at least it’s not likely to occur. They’re closer to maximization.

You get a 20 pound bag! You get a 20 pound bag! – The last time the Elites were here at St. Clair, there were a remarkable 33 Day One bags over 20 pounds. Today there were 44. Last time there were 13 bags of 22 pounds or more. Today there were “only” 12.

Hank Cherry (90th, 16-7) – “I’m glad to be on solid ground.” While I wrote above that it seems the weights aren’t going up on Day Two quite as often as in years past, tomorrow may test that theory if the wind lays down a bit. Today anglers had trouble getting around, and might not have been able to fish some key areas.

99 Problems – Poor Blake Capps reported hooking and losing what would have been his fifth keeper on several occasions, and was the only angler in the field to fall short of a limit. That has to be a demoralizing feeling.

Another Angsty Angler – Chad Pipkens, a former Opens winner here, and the only Michigan resident in the field, finds himself in 96th with 15-8. He made a long run today, looking for a big bag and to stave off relegation, but it didn’t pay off. “It just drives you crazy, but that’s what keeps you coming back,” he said. “There’s 25 pounds out there, you just got to get it going.”

Will Davis Jr. (3rd, 23-3) – “I only caught seven today.”

The AOY Race – Jay Przekurat, who entered the event in the lead in the AOY race, weighed in 19-7, good enough for 53rd place. That’s just 5 ounces out of the cut, and less than 3 pounds out of the top 10. “I’m honestly happy with the weight I had,” he said. “It keeps you in the game.” Meanwhile, though, six of the seven anglers immediately behind him gained points or surpassed him. Chris Johnston is in 39th, but the big mover was McKinney, who – if the standings hold – would have gained 52 points on Przekurat and 38 and Johnston. There are several others who did themselves a solid – Kyoya Fujita, who entered tied for 5th in AOY, is in 7thplace in the tournament after Day One. Will Davis Jr. who entered in 7th, is in 3rd in the tournament. While the margins seemed large heading into today, the fact that ounces will make such a huge difference this week means that there’s no room for error – or for missing cuts.

Cooper Gallant (75th, 18-3) – “All that’s on my mind right now is that Classic.” He’s the only one of the five Canadian anglers in the field who is currently outside of the top fifty cut at St. Clair. Rookie Evan Kung is the best of the bunch, in 19th.

Thanking the Double Qualifiers – With Easton Fothergill and Cory Johnston almost certain to double-qualify for the 2026 Classic, and Kyle Patrick taking a medical hardship, the Classic cut will likely go down into the mid-40s. Of those anglers ranked between 44th and 53rd heading into today, the ones who helped themselves immensely are Kyle Norsetter (10th, 22-6), Dakota Ebare (4th, 23-1) and Pat Schlapper (16th, 21-11).

Kyle Norsetter – “Once you start balance-beaming 4-pounders, it’s a pretty good day.”

Speaking of Schlapper – I spent some time in the boat with Schlapper right after the Hartwell event and he was down in the dumps about his chances of making the Classic. After a 42nd place finish to start the year at the St. Johns, he’d finished 98th, 68th and 80th in the next three. He made a move at Fork by finishing 32nd, then won at the Sabine and finished 36th at Tenkiller. If he can hold his place here this week, he should be in great position heading to LaCrosse, where he has loads of experience. The goal is to extend his Classic streak to four in a row.

The Rookie Race – Lake Fork winner Tucker Smith has closed the gap in the ROY race, now only behind Paul Marks by 13 points. He’s currently in 13th at St. Clair, 50 places ahead of Paul Marks and 60 places ahead of Beau Browning, the anglers who followed him in the rookie race standings. Classic champ Easton Fothergill (5th, 22-14) is the only rookie in the top ten after Day One.

Cliff Pirch (99th, 14-15) – “I think a chimpanzee could catch 17 or 18 out there on Lake St. Clair.”

Runner Up Running Away? – Matt Robertson has struggled through a tough year so far, missing the cut at all seven Elite events to date. Now, after Day One, he’s sitting in 2nd, 11 ounces out of the lead and possibly in position to earn his first Elite win. Meanwhile, his wife, Kolleen is due to give birth pretty much NOW. “You might want to stick a cork in it, plug it, or something,” he advised her from the stage. It’s unclear what he’ll do if he gets the call.